123
FXUS63 KBIS 050545
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH
MONDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS, AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS WITH CLEARING SKIES, MAINLY IN THE
NORTH, COULD SEE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS
THAT HAD PROPAGATED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 200 AND INTERSTATE 94. AS
RECENTLY AS 9 PM CDT, THAT DYING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WAS STILL
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE FROM NEAR CARRINGTON
TO JAMESTOWN. BUT IN THE HALF HOUR SINCE, A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
TREND IN MAXIMUM GUSTS HAS BEEN OBSERVED. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
AT 630 PM CDT, THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR HARVEY TO FORT YATES, MOVING
EAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. A 48 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS PASSED AROUND BISMARCK. OTHERWISE, MAXIMUM GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH HAVE BEEN MORE COMMON. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE, BUT THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED
UPDRAFTS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CURRENTLY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AROUND A BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAY UP IN CANADA, IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. DIURNAL AND CYCLONICALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
POPCORNING ALL OVER THE STATE. WITH THESE, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING, AND MOVING EAST. THERE IS FORECAST TO
BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TODAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS STILL PRESENT HIGH IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN.
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THIS TIME MAINLY JUST CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA. AGAIN, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THIS TIME
A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY ANOTHER
SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH, LEADING TO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES
OUT OF CANADA. BETWEEN A COLD FRONT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCES, STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE WINDY
IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH, SUNDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND
POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE NEAR 80.
NEXT WEEK, A FLAT RIDGE SETS UP WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED OFF THE MONTANA MOUNTAINS. MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
OVERALL LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED FOR
AREAS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD GO
ON A DIMINISHING TREND THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL BE FOUND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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