336
FXUS63 KBIS 051728
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN
TODAY, AND REMAIN ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND ON
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
NORTH AND WEST WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST, INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATER AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. SOME PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST BUT SHOULD START TO LIFT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
ONLY MINOR UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST ARE SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTS. WEBCAMS SHOWING FOG OVERALL
ISOLATED AND SHALLOW. STILL DECIDED TO AD IN PATCHY FOG MENTION
FOR THESE MENTIONED AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE,
SHOWERS ARE ENTERING IN THE SOUTH WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CURRENTLY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THEM. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THEM. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
BROAD TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN TODAY, WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
OVERALL THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH, THUS THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ND. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER. THUS THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE LOW TODAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. OF NOTE ARE INCREASED PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM,
PERHAPS PROVIDING FOR SOME MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN
ALOFT TODAY, BRINGING HAZY SKIES WITH LIMITED IMPACTS AT THE
SURFACE EXPECTED. TONIGHT, THE MENTIONED WAVE LINGERS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO CLEAR SKIES BEHIND
THIS WAVE AND DIMINISHES WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROVIDE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE COULD
SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IN THE AFTERNOON COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM,
MAINLY IN THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PROVIDE FOR
SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER LOWS IN THE 50S
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING IT. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE KEY TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE COULD SEE
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS OR
MORE. AS A RESULT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SPC NOW HAS A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN ND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS LINGER. LOOK FOR LOWS BACK IN THE 40S WITH SOME 50S.
CUTOFF LOW COULD THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE EAST, WHILE THE GRADIENT FROM THIS LOW
BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS. ECMWF EFI VALUES FOR WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY, INDICATING AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE
40S, AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
CLUSTERS INDICATE RIDGING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD PROVIDE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
NBM FORECASTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S, WITH NBM SPREADS EVEN
WARM. THERE IS A WIDE TEMPERATURE SPREAD THOUGH AS THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS RIDGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE
AROUND MID WEEK COULD RETURN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NBM CURRENTLY HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS LINGER
INTO MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY. DEPENDING HOW THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE PLAYS OUT,
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE FOUND MID NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
KBIS AND KJMS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE
SPECIFIC SITE. A HEAVIER SHOWER COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IF ONE MOVES OVERHEAD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ZH
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