152
FXUS63 KBIS 232350
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOL, BREEZY, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMUP WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE RETURN OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CANADA WITH
NORTH DAKOTA ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM. INCREASING HEIGHTS AT THE SURFACE AND A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW
MORNING INCREASING DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A
LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN STREAM
OF THE JET STREAM RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SHOT OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LATER IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS DECENT SHEAR AND CAPE
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES, INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AS ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WITH DECENT SHEAR, HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS A TAD BIT ON THE LOWER
END. DECENT SHEAR AND CAPE COULD SUPPORT STRONG STORMS THURSDAY.
COLORADO STATE MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAM HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHT LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNEDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NSSL
MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAM HAS BEEN PEGGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR THE MORE LIKELY DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER. FRIDAY THERE IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LEADING TO A GREATER
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S THURSDAY
AND MAYBE HITTING THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT COOL OFF AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
TUESDAY THEN SEES VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ANGLIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page