252
FXUS63 KBIS 240546
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOL, BREEZY, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMUP WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A FEW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ARE ENTERING
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE MAY EXPAND A BIT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FOUND IN EASTERN MT. THESE COULD
ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS, ALTHOUGH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH. MEANWHILE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO POPS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. LATEST
HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING SOME SMOKE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT SKY COVER, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN IT REACHING THE SURFACE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CANADA WITH
NORTH DAKOTA ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM. INCREASING HEIGHTS AT THE SURFACE AND A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW
MORNING INCREASING DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A
LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN STREAM
OF THE JET STREAM RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SHOT OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LATER IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS DECENT SHEAR AND CAPE
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES, INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AS ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WITH DECENT SHEAR, HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS A TAD BIT ON THE LOWER
END. DECENT SHEAR AND CAPE COULD SUPPORT STRONG STORMS THURSDAY.
COLORADO STATE MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAM HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHT LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNEDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NSSL
MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAM HAS BEEN PEGGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR THE MORE LIKELY DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER. FRIDAY THERE IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LEADING TO A GREATER
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S THURSDAY
AND MAYBE HITTING THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT COOL OFF AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ENTERING FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
THE MOST PART, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS, MORE
LIKELY JUST IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, COULD REACH KDIK OR KBIS
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TELKEN
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