515
FXUS63 KBIS 240939
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
439 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. FOR THE DAY TODAY, EXPECT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THAT
SAID, A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF
I94. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD
TODAY AND MOISTER AIR ADVECTS MAINLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. STRONG 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS IS
PROGGED, HOWEVER, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED OVERALL. SHOULD
A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST, A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ISN'T IMPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS
LOW.
BEYOND THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK,
EXPECT ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM OFTEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
OVERALL THE INGREDIENTS DON'T LINE UP WELL ON A STATEWIDE BASIS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWEST COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH BETTER
OVERLAP IS CURRENTLY PROGGED IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THURSDAY,
INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER, BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. ALL IN ALL, BELIEVE THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY
ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION REMAINS LOW.
FRIDAY CONTAINS THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER THIS WEEK, DESPITE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE MAJORITY
OF DETERMINISTICS ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE STATE STRAIGHT FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ASSUMING ADEQUATE
SHEAR AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
DAY 4, 15 PERCENT OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY, AND
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HOW THIS OR ANY OTHER SEVERE THREAT
EVOLVES.
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, SEASONABLE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TODAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD NBM
HIGHS IN THE 80S FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONE IMPORTANT
NOTE ABOUT THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST HIGHS IS THAT MANY OF THEM
ARE CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE, INCLUDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS MORE ROOM FOR HIGHS TO
OVERPERFORM THAN UNDERPERFORM AS A WHOLE.
ONE FINAL NOTE IN REGARD TO THE FORECAST IS THAT MOSTLY
ELEVATED SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN MILKY LOOKING SKIES AT TIMES WHEN
ACTUAL CLOUD COVER IS NOT PRESENT. ANY SMOKE THAT MAKES IT TO
THE SURFACE APPEARS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ENTERING FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR
THE MOST PART, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS, MORE
LIKELY JUST IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, COULD REACH KDIK OR KBIS
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page