446
FXUS63 KBIS 241056
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
556 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WITHOUT ANY INSTABILITY ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE,
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHERMORE, WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, LITTLE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND. AS SUCH, THESE RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. FOR THE DAY TODAY, EXPECT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THAT
SAID, A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF
I94. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD
TODAY AND MOISTER AIR ADVECTS MAINLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. STRONG 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS IS
PROGGED, HOWEVER, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED OVERALL. SHOULD
A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST, A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ISN'T IMPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS
LOW.
BEYOND THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK,
EXPECT ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM OFTEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
OVERALL THE INGREDIENTS DON'T LINE UP WELL ON A STATEWIDE BASIS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWEST COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH BETTER
OVERLAP IS CURRENTLY PROGGED IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THURSDAY,
INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER, BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. ALL IN ALL, BELIEVE THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY
ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION REMAINS LOW.
FRIDAY CONTAINS THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER THIS WEEK, DESPITE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE MAJORITY
OF DETERMINISTICS ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE STATE STRAIGHT FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ASSUMING ADEQUATE
SHEAR AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
DAY 4, 15 PERCENT OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY, AND
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HOW THIS OR ANY OTHER SEVERE THREAT
EVOLVES.
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, SEASONABLE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TODAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD NBM
HIGHS IN THE 80S FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONE IMPORTANT
NOTE ABOUT THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST HIGHS IS THAT MANY OF THEM
ARE CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE, INCLUDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS MORE ROOM FOR HIGHS TO
OVERPERFORM THAN UNDERPERFORM AS A WHOLE.
ONE FINAL NOTE IN REGARD TO THE FORECAST IS THAT MOSTLY
ELEVATED SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN MILKY LOOKING SKIES AT TIMES WHEN
ACTUAL CLOUD COVER IS NOT PRESENT. ANY SMOKE THAT MAKES IT TO
THE SURFACE APPEARS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE STARTING IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS, AND ESPECIALLY
VISIBILITY, ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY. OF NOTE, THERE ARE A FEW RADAR
RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS
LIKELY THESE RETURNS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES,
BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE KJMS OR KBIS COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY IS
UNLIKELY TO GO BELOW VFR LEVELS SHOULD ANY LIGHT RAIN OCCUR. OF
FINAL NOTE, ELEVATED SMOKE MAY PRODUCE MILKY SKIES ACROSS THE
STATE AT TIMES TODAY, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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