250
FXUS63 KBIS 242035
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THIS PATTERN, AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BLEEDING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, TODAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
BROADLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(30 TO 50 PERCENT) MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
SAME TIMEFRAME IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, AS MODEL MUCAPE VALUES
PEAK INTO THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE. WITH BETTER FORCING, MOISTURE,
AND INSTABILITY FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
THE OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW. OTHERWISE TODAY, MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH ARE BROADLY
EXPECTED. OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM UTAH, PROMOTING A HAZY HORIZON OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE TO NONE
OF THIS SMOKE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME.
THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES (50 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST,
AS MODEL MLCAPE VALUES PEAK INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE.
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH BULK SHEAR VALUES PEAKING IN THE 40-50
KNOTS RANGE ACROSS THE WEST, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MAINLY IS FOUND IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT ALSO REMAINS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL AS BETTER INGREDIENTS REMAIN DISPLACED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS, SPC HAS
PLACED PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY. NOT TO BE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST UP TO THE MID 80S WEST. WITH THIS, GREATER INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MODEL MLCAPE VALUES REACHING INTO THE 1500-150
RANGE. HOWEVER, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY POOR DURING THIS
PERIOD, GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25S KNOT RANGE OVERALL. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
WHERE SOME OF THESE INGREDIENTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALIGN.
THUS, THE SPC DAY 3 HAS HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
RISK FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.
AS THE THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLES, FRIDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WORKWEEK. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO PEAK BROADLY IN
THE 80S, WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THIS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE IN PLACE, A SHALLOW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO EJECT AN OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH, IN
COLLABORATION STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT, MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS LONG AS THIS
FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH, AND AS ALONG AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR
BECOMES AVAILABLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MODE REMAINS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS THIS
FAR OUT, THOUGH THUS, AS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION, SPC HAS
PLACED MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO A DAY 4 15%
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, WHILE CSU MACHINE
LEARNING ALGORITHM FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS MUCH
OF THE SAME AREA, WITH A GREATER FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BEYOND FRIDAY, NEAR ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THIS PATTERN, NEAR DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. CSU MACHINE
LEARNING CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST FROM
THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST UP TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST, THOUGH DO
BEGIN TO COOL BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
OF NOTE IS THAT THIS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT REMAINS AROUND THE
25TH PERCENTILE OF THE ENSEMBLE AS A WHOLE AND THUS IT WOULD
NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISING TO SEE TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORM.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE IN A SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE FROM THE WEST.
IN THIS PATTERN, WE COULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE MAINLY ANTICIPATED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED -SHRA AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL AS
TSRA AT KDIK WITH THIS UPDATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT THE SOUTHWESTERN
TERMINAL OF KDIK. OTHERWISE, WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT UNDER 10 MPH
DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. WHERE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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