027
FXUS63 KBIS 251456
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST ON THURSDAY.
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SHOWERS, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
ND. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS
AROUND WILLISTON AND WEST INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS AREA IS
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHWEST AT
THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE
UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR THE ND/SD
BORDER. AN OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
AN ACTIVE LATE JUNE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BEING DOMINANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK,
FOLLOWED BY MORE ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE LOW THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER,
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK ARE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE GULF OPENS AND MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM 65 TO NEAR 70
DEGREES STREAM INTO THE STATE, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS.
CURRENTLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND. WITH AROUND 45 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR,
THESE STORMS HAVE BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND OBSERVED WIND GUSTS FROM AROUND 40 TO 50
MPH. HOWEVER, A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS PREVENTED THEM
FROM BECOMING SEVERE. INSTABILITY DOESN'T BEGIN TO INCREASE
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING, AND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, MORE SO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN MONTANA, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGHER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO SET, INSTABILITY DECREASES RAPIDLY, WHILE SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO DECREASE AS WELL. SHOULD ANY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP,
THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR TODAY INCLUDE PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
FOR THURSDAY, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN WESTERN
ND THAN TODAY. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE WEAKER. WITH
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDINGS AND A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR, PULSING
SEVERE STORMS SEEM THE LIKELIEST OUTCOME SHOULD ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOP. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK ONLY PINGS THE FAR
NORTHWEST IN A MARGINAL, LIKELY DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE BORDER AND A LACK OF A GOOD
FORCING MECHANISM. STILL, COULD FORESEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN ANY OF THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OR SO OF COUNTIES
IN ND. AS A RESULT, BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
FRIDAY REMAINS THE DAY THIS WEEK WHERE SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST
LIKELY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL OPEN THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND ALLOW MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS UP TO 70 DEGREES TO
STREAM INTO THE STATE, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAT
CAPE PROFILES ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE MAY BE
SOME CAPPING ISSUES IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND A PASSING WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOULD BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME CAPPING FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, AND
POSSIBLY THE EAST AS WELL. SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST
FRIDAY WITH AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS PROGGED TO COINCIDE WITH THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THAT IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MAINLY FOR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER, WILL WANT TO SEE MORE CLARITY WITH THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST. IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, THEN WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW SYSTEM ALOFT FOLLOWING
FRIDAY'S EVENT, A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM MAY BE HARD TO FIND.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FAVORED TO BECOME MOSTLY DRY TO START NEXT
WEEK.
BEYOND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, THE TWO OTHER THINGS WORTH
MENTIONING ARE TEMPERATURES AND SMOKE ALOFT. IN REGARD TO
SMOKE, ELEVATED SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
HOWEVER, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT AND FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, THAT WILL BE UNNOTICEABLE MOST OF THE
DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. A WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP TO FINISH OUT THE
WORKWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A CRESCENDO ON FRIDAY BEFORE
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS FAVORED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH SHOULD START ENDING IN THE WEST AND NORTH
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT JUST WEST OF KBIS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. CONTINUE
USING TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS IN THE TAFS AS NEEDED DEPENDING
ON CONFIDENCE AND TIMING IN REGARD TO ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND
FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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