360
FXUS63 KBIS 270634
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
134 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (RISK LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECTED HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL AS LARGE AS TENNIS
BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH, AND A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
ARE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE
HUMID FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED IN FROM
MONTANA HAS MOSTLY FALLEN APART, BUT THE DECAYING PROCESS IS
PRODUCING EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS AROUND 30 MPH IN ITS
WAKE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST MCKENZIE COUNTY AS OF MIDNIGHT MDT, BUT THESE TOO ARE
SHOWING A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING COULD CROSS THE MONTANA BORDER INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED, AND THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IS ALSO NOW TRENDING MUCH LOWER.
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SKY COVER FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STRATUS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
FROM AROUND LAKE SAKAKAWEA TO LAKE OAHE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE STATE BORDER. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST FROM
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THIS EVENING WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL
AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. PATCHY FOG
COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH A MUCH BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW PATTERN. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EXIT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
REGION DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER EASTERN
CANADA, PROMOTED A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE, THIS
STRATUS LAYER CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THICK CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER, FORECAST IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, VERSUS OUT WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES
HAVE HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SURVIVE
LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
EVENING. WITH MODERATE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH MODELED MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 TO 1000
J/KG, AND BORDERLINE SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 TO
45 KNOTS, A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
WITH HOW BORDERLINE THESE VALUES ARE, AND HOW DISORGANIZED THEY
BECOME LATER IN THE EVENING, OUR EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED, AND
WOULD STRUGGLE TO PUT DOWN MUCH MORE THAT BASE-LINE SEVERE
HAZARDS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT
MOST. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
THEN LINGER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, FOR TONIGHT, WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
AMPLE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE COULD PROMOTE PATCHY DOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING
THIS PERIOD REVEAL A SURFACE INVERSION VERY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE, THUS ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW, AND FAIRLY QUICK TO LIFT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST IN
BROADLY FROM THE MID 50S EAST UP TO AROUND 60 WEST.
NOW ON TO FRIDAY. WITH THE GULF ESSENTIALLY WIDE OPEN TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE CONTINUED SATURATION THE LOW TO MID LAYERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROMOTE AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL
SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MUCAPE VALUES APPROACH THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO PRESENT ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD, MOST LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD BY
SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOFTING A OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, THE CONTINUED SATURATION OF THE MID
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO HELP ERODE ANY LINGERING CIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THUS CI CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING, THESE INITIAL STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DISCRETE IN NATURE. MODEL SHEAR VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT ALL OVER THE PLACE, BUT BROADLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40
KNOT RANGE ALL THE UP TO AROUND 55 KNOTS JUST BEHIND THESE
INITIAL STORMS. WITH THIS, SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE WHICH, ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT CAPE ACROSS THE AREA,
COULD PROMOTE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS (2.5 INCHES).
ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE CAMS CONTINUE TO CAPTURE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT NEAR SURFACE SRH VALUES PEAKING INTO THE
100-200 M2/S2 RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LESS AGREEMENT CAN BE
FOUND REGARDING NEAR SURFACE SHEAR. EVEN THE RAP AND NAMNEST,
WHICH HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVELY CHAMPIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES, PROMOTE SFC-1KM SHEAR VALUES JUST AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
MOST WHICH, WHILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO
GENESIS, IS NOT VERY HIGH. OTHER MODELS, SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
HREF, ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH VALUES AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
SO. OVERALL, I THINK THAT THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS THAT A TORNADO
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY POTENTIAL SUPERCELL. OTHERWISE, AN INTERROGATION OF
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEALS MODERATE DCAPE VALUES ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF A
GENERAL CONVERSION FROM A DISCRETE STORM MODE INTO A MORE
CLUSTERED OR LINEAR MODE OCCURS, WHICH CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH
BOTH THE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS AND IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE
NORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THUS, WE ARE ALSO ADVERTISING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AS WELL.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BY WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
STARTED DIMINISHING AND CLUSTERING TOGETHER.
BEYOND FRIDAY, NEAR ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THIS PATTERN, NEAR DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. CSU MACHINE
LEARNING CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE ADVERTISED TO
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE NBM, IN BROADLY IN THE
80S, THOUGH THIS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT REMAINS AROUND THE 25TH
PERCENTILE OF THE ENSEMBLE AS A WHOLE. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE IN A
SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN THE FROM THE WEST. IN THIS PATTERN, WE COULD
ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO SQUISH DOWN BY THE MIDWEEK,
TURNING FLOW MORE ZONAL AND THUS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT, LIKELY DISSIPATING AND/OR
LIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. KMOT COULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE LOW CLOUDS. FOG
COULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, CAUSING AT LEAST IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BACK IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE ENTERING
FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS, IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND
TIMING IS VERY LOW. THEN FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM AROUND KMOT TO
KBIS AND TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AT LEAST IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY STORM. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS ON FRIDAY, WITH DIRECTION TURNING
WESTERLY IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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