216
FXUS63 KBIS 282054
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOME PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY, WITH HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
CURRENTLY, A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST ND INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN ND, WITH A FINGER OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE
NORTHERN JRV IS AROUND 25 KNOTS, BUT DOES INCREASE TO 40-50
KNOTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS
DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHEAST FOSTER COUNTY, AND INTO SOUTHWEST
EDDY COUNTY. ANOTHER STORM HAD DEVELOPED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF
JAMESTOWN. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS,
THROUGH AROUND 00 UTC WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE JRV. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND
WE LOSE OUR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
SUBSIDE. BACK TO THE WEST, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR
NORTHEAST WYOMING INT WEST CENTRAL SD. THIS IS WITHIN AN AREA
OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER WESTERN SD TONIGHT AND
TRACK TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BUT WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SD BORDER TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WE COOL OFF AND DRY OUT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET BENEATH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY AND CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TUESDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THERE ISN'T CURRENTLY A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, DAILY
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINT INTO THE 60S, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY A WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTY AT
TIMES UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KXWA THIS AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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