896
FXUS63 KBIS 011725
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY, AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
STILL HARDLY A CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE EARLY THIS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE IS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AND
MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE ARE JUST A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATE TONIGHT LLJ
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH, BUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SOME PATCHY FOG OCCURRED AROUND WATFORD CITY A FEW HOURS AGO,
WITH THE SUNSHINE NOW IT SHOULD BE GONE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CURRENTLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. ALOFT A RIDGE IS MOVING IN, WITH A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE
AT 850MB. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS. WIND SPEEDS
HOWEVER WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH, EXPECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST,
WHERE WINDS COULD BE CLOSER TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS
RIDGE MOVING IN, TODAY WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP TO THE
MID 90S BY THURSDAY. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. NONE OF THESE DAY WILL FEATURE THE WARMING WEST OR
SOUTHWEST WIND HOWEVER, SO WOULDN'T EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO
OVERPERFORM. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY. THURSDAY THE
EASTERN HALF WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH OFF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT (MORE ON
THIS LATER). FRIDAY IS THE EXACT SAME THING BUT FROM A DIFFERENT
LOW PRESSURE.
WEDNESDAY A FEW LITTLE DISTURBANCES OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN
MONTANA MOVE THROUGH, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN,
THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES THE PATTERN, WHICH
MEANS MORE THUNDERSTORMS. A COLORADO LOW DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL
SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING. MOST
MODELS HAVE CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OR MORE. HOWEVER EACH MODEL
HAS DIFFERENT TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR SHEAR WE WOULD HAVE
PLENTY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH MOST MODELS HAVING 35-40KTS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND VERY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS, INDICATING A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT. ALL OF THIS IS
VERY CONDITIONAL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE
CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE. IF THE CAP CAN BREAK WITH STRONG SURFACE
BASED CAPE FROM A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR. SPEAKING OF HOT AND HUMID, LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK
WILL FEEL VERY MUGGY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S WILL MAKE NORTH DAKOTA FEEL LIKE A TROPICAL STATE!
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER FRIDAY, WITH MORE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TIME, PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) COULD BE VERY HIGH. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFER ON THIS
BUT THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE A FEW DAYS. THIS MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD PRODUCE A LOT OF RAINFALL, LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. SATURDAY ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN NEXT
WEEK LOOKS THE SAME WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS A TRAIN OF
CANADIAN PACIFIC LOWS MOVE THROUGH. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE 80S NEXT WEEK.ATAF
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...TWH
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