040
FXUS63 KBIS 022054
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUT EAST.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WITH A COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA. THUS, SOME SITES IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE ALREADY TOUCHED THE LOWER 90S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING FORTH THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THESE STORM COULD BE SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE CAMS ARE
HIGHLIGHT A WEAKENING QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER OF STORMS DISSIPATING
IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
SIT IN THE 60S TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW SITES
NEARING TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION, A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTATED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING FORTH A LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 20 MPH THAT WILL PULL IN 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA TOMORROW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROWS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO SIT AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG WITH
AROUND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDING WERE
ORIGINALLY SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP HINDERING INITIATION, BUT
THE LATEST CAMS HAVE COME IN WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO HAVE A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO IF STORMS BECOME
SURFACE BASED. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE COULD PLAY A ROLL IN STORM INITIATION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTING STORMS
AFTER DEVELOPMENT. THE MODE OF THE STORM COULD START OUT AS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ORGANIZING INTO A LINE LATE TOMORROW TONIGHT
WITH SOME HREF MEMBERS HINTING AT AN MCS. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL, 70 MPH WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING IN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE RANGING FROM 1.5 IN BISMARCK TO 1.8 IN FARGO
WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AS THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF PRECIPITATION ARE LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUT EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO BRING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWING SUIT SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE A RETURN OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAM IS PEGGING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR HAVING LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST, BUT THE PROBABILITY REMAINS TO LOW FOR A PROB
30 GROUP. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ADDED
INTO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH
BREEZY WINDS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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