939
FXUS63 KBIS 032051
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WITH A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED UPPER 80S INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION, A NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING FORTH A LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 20 MPH THAT WILL PULL IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAS LEAD TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. BREEZY WINDS
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
IN FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WAVE
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY'S
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCAPE IS
FORECAST TO SIT AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG WITH AROUND 20-30 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT CLUSTER DEVELOPMENT OFF OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE UNCAPPED. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE COULD PLAY A ROLL IN STORM INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTING STORMS LATER
TONIGHT. THE MODE OF THE STORM COULD START OUT AS DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IN SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA CONGEALING INTO A CLUSTER OF
STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE WIND THREAT
WILL BE THE HIGHEST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL, 70 MPH WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SUPERCELLS EARLY ON.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING IN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE RANGING FROM 1.7 IN BISMARCK TO 1.9 IN
JAMESTOWN WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AS THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION ARE LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON AN AXIS OF STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS AN ISOLATED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OUT EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW HAS AROUND 2000
J/KG OF MUCAPE COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO BRING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWING SUIT SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK WE
COULD SEE A RETURN OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAM IS PEGGING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR HAVING LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, EACH TAF SITE DOES HAVE ONE
OR TWO MODELS MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TERMINAL TONIGHT,
THUS THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TSRA. AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE IF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE EARLIER OR LATER. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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