817  
FXUS63 KBIS 040854  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY WITH AN  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF THE  
MISSOURI RIVER. THE BIGGEST HAZARDS ARE HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL,  
60MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
- ANOTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY  
IN THE WEST.  
 
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH  
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CARRY  
OVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
STORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, LEFTOVER FROM  
THURSDAY EVENING'S SEVERE STORMS. THE CAMS HAVE THEM FULLY  
MOVING OUT OR DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNRISE.  
 
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE LOWER 80S WEST, TO LOWER 90S EAST. DEW POINTS WILL STILL  
REMAIN IN 60S TO 70S AGAIN. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL ALOFT AND  
THIS WARM AND HUMID AIR, SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN EXCEPTED TODAY.  
THIS TIME EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE  
70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE  
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE.  
AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE FRONT WILL KICK  
STORMS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE  
MISSOURI RIVER AND THE JAMES RIVER ALL SOUTH OF MINOT. WE WILL  
SEE HOWEVER WITH THE CAMS BEING NOT VERY ACCURATE THURSDAY. THE  
CAPE IN A FEW MODELS IS OVER 2500 J/KG IN OUR EAST, WHEREAS  
OTHERS HAVE IT CLOSER TO 1500. THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE LOW, MODELS  
HAVE IT BETWEEN 15KTS AND 30KTS. THEY SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE  
HIGH SHEAR IS CLOSER TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SPC UPGRADED OUR  
SOUTHEAST TO A SLIGHT RISK. WITH THE HIGHER CAPE BUT LOWER  
SHEAR, WE WILL GO WITH HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60MPH WINDS IN  
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. STORM MODE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LINEAR.  
THE SIGNAL IS ALSO THERE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING, CLOSER TO THE JAMES RIVER. OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST IS  
1 TO 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PWATS ARE HIGH  
WITH ALL THIS MOISTURE IN THE AIR.  
 
ANOTHER WAVE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN FROM MONTANA  
SATURDAY, CAUSING ANOTHER DAY OF A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.  
THIS TIME IT IS IN THE FAR WEST. THE END OF THE CAM RUNS HAVE A  
QLCS MOVING IN FROM MONTANA IN THE EVENING. MOST MODELS HOWEVER  
HAVE ALL THE CAPE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE, BUT SHEAR COULD  
BE ANYWHERE FROM 35KT TO 50KTS.  
 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE 80S  
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MULTIPLE  
WAVES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THEN A RIDGE COULD  
MOVE IN AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 90S. LATE NEXT  
WEEK, A BIGGER TROUGH COULD MOVE IN WITH MORE CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT SEEMS LIKE WE ARE NOW MAKING UP  
FOR THE DRIER JUNE WITH ALL THESE STORMS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
VFR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT PRESENT, MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS. STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z IN THE NORTH CENTRAL.  
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN KBIS AND KJMS TONIGHT AT AROUND  
1200FT. LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 WAS USED IN  
LOCATIONS WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN  
POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...SMITH  
AVIATION...SMITH  
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