443
FXUS63 KBIS 041450
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THE BIGGEST HAZARDS ARE HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL,
60MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- ANOTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY
IN THE WEST.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CARRY
OVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A LINE
FILLING OUT. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
ACCORDING TO THE NBM AND SOME CAMS THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. RIGHT NOW THEY MIGHT BE TOO LIGHT TO HIT THE GROUND.
THE CLOUD BASES ARE VERY HIGH, BUT THE AIR IS MOIST ALREADY SO
AT THE VERY LEAST THERE IS PROBABLY A DRIZZLE WITH THESE.
OTHERWISE TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST STILL REMAINS IN THE
SAME LOCATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
STORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, LEFTOVER FROM
THURSDAY EVENING'S SEVERE STORMS. THE CAMS HAVE THEM FULLY
MOVING OUT OR DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST, TO LOWER 90S EAST. DEW POINTS WILL STILL
REMAIN IN 60S TO 70S AGAIN. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL ALOFT AND
THIS WARM AND HUMID AIR, SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN EXCEPTED TODAY.
THIS TIME EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE FRONT WILL KICK
STORMS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND THE JAMES RIVER ALL SOUTH OF MINOT. WE WILL
SEE HOWEVER WITH THE CAMS BEING NOT VERY ACCURATE THURSDAY. THE
CAPE IN A FEW MODELS IS OVER 2500 J/KG IN OUR EAST, WHEREAS
OTHERS HAVE IT CLOSER TO 1500. THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE LOW, MODELS
HAVE IT BETWEEN 15KTS AND 30KTS. THEY SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
HIGH SHEAR IS CLOSER TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SPC UPGRADED OUR
SOUTHEAST TO A SLIGHT RISK. SPC DOES HAVE A TORNADO RISK IN
EASTERN ND, BUT IT STRETCHES TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA.
WITH THE HIGHER CAPE BUT LOWER SHEAR, WE WILL GO WITH HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60MPH WINDS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. STORM
MODE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LINEAR. THE SIGNAL IS ALSO THERE FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, CLOSER TO THE JAMES
RIVER. OUR CURRENT QPF FORECAST IS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PWATS ARE HIGH WITH ALL THIS MOISTURE
IN THE AIR.
ANOTHER WAVE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN FROM MONTANA
SATURDAY, CAUSING ANOTHER DAY OF A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
THIS TIME IT IS IN THE FAR WEST. THE END OF THE CAM RUNS HAVE A
QLCS MOVING IN FROM MONTANA IN THE EVENING. MOST MODELS HOWEVER
HAVE ALL THE CAPE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE, BUT SHEAR COULD
BE ANYWHERE FROM 35KT TO 50KTS.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE 80S
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MULTIPLE
WAVES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THEN A RIDGE COULD
MOVE IN AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 90S. LATE NEXT
WEEK, A BIGGER TROUGH COULD MOVE IN WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT SEEMS LIKE WE ARE NOW MAKING UP
FOR THE DRIER JUNE WITH ALL THESE STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MAINLY VFR. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MORNING LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL, THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL DAY. MVFR CIGS
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR VIS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH 10 TO 15KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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