513
FXUS63 KBIS 050332
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY IN THE WEST.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
AT 10 PM CDT, MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WERE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRIOR TO SUNSET, VERTICAL GROWTH WAS NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT ONLY AN OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THERE AREA ALSO A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN THAT ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
BUT THESE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAYING. AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, ROUGHLY FROM DEVILS LAKE TO DICKINSON, MAINTAIN
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS EVENING, WITH PROBABILITIES STEADILY DECREASING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN THOUGH MUCAPE IS STILL
ANALYZED TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
LESS THAN 20 KTS WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM BECOMING STRONG.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED, AS OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS STABILIZED THE NEAR-
SURFACE AIR MASS. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW COLLISIONS ARE NOW CAUSING NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF NAPOLEON. THESE
UPDRAFTS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING VERY SHORT-LIVED THOUGH. PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING, BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS ALL BUT
CONCLUDED, AND THE PROBABILITY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING. LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE WITH STORMS
FIRING ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH CAPE AROUND 2000-3500 J/KG AND LOW
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS HAS PROMPTED SEVERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS
ARE HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS. DCAPE IS AROUND
1000-1400 J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST. THIS THREAT
IS MAINLY FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE AND ELEVATED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OFF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS FROM
PRESSURE RISES. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CAMS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA LATE SATURDAY INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN THIS LINE.
THIS LINE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS AS IT CROSSED THE
STATE BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE BROUGHT IN THE LINE OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD WEAK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO RETURN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. ENSEMBLES HAVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
AS THERE IS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE THERE UPPER LOW
PASSES THERE IS AROUND 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR HOWEVER THE
GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON INSTABILITY. CSU MACHINE LEARNING
PROGRAM HAS BACKED OFF ON MONDAY WITH THE GEFS HAVING LOWER
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SO SEE THIS TREND
UP THIS WEEKEND. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAM IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING
POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TREND UP NEXT WEEK BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO STEADILY DECREASE. IF A HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM
DOES PASS OVER A TERMINAL, BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS COULD POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITY LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
KBIS DUE TO THE LARGER NEARBY FIREWORKS DISPLAY, BUT ANY
TERMINAL COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KTS AT KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WIND DIRECTION WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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