419
FXUS63 KBIS 051735
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE (40 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
HAS BEEN IN A DIMINISHING STATE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WE
HAVEN'T SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO, THUS IT
SEEMS LIKE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO WANE. UPDATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BETTER REFLECT THE OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER THESE STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO HANG ON AS WEAK INSTABILITY GETS EVEN WEAKER
MOVING EAST. CAMS ALSO DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION, BUT THE THOUGHT IS THAT IT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NOW, WE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION AND UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
CURRENTLY, DIRTY S/WV MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ND, WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED DUE TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE.
AFTER THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS, MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MORE STABLE AIR
SETTLES IN WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80, ALONG WITH LESS HUMIDITY AS WELL AS SFC
DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR OUR AREA.
POTENT S/WV TROUGH (NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST) WILL DEVELOP
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, AND INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA LATER TODAY, WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVING INTO WESTERN ND SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND GROWING
UPSCALE WITH STRONG/SEVERE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN ND. SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ND, WITH A MARGINAL OUTLOOK TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS AREA, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
MID LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY TRUDGES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY, AND WILL MAINTAIN BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE FOLLOWS AND
TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
TEMPERATURES TREND BRIEFLY WARMER INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FROPA IS THEN PROJECTED AROUND THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE CURRENT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO THE WEST
IN THE EVENING AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY OF THE HEAVIER
STORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. KDIK COULD ALSO SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECISE TIMING AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN SO WE
ARE RELYING HEAVILY ON PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ZH
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