509
FXUS63 KBIS 281948
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE NORTH AND
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECTED HAZARDS
INCLUDE HAIL AS LARGE AS HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE SEVERE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING HAVE WORKED OVER MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING THE AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE
STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT FROM MONTANA. THESE
STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.
TOMORROW THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE CAMS ARE BRINGING IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT
IS 60 MPH WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THE INSTABILITY
TOMORROW IS AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND AROUND 50 KTS
OF SHEAR. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HAIL SIZE INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE
LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STALL
AND DEEPEN OVER THE HUDSON BAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH DAKOTA
ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE JET STREAM WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TREK EASTWARD
LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
MACHINE LEARNING PROGRAMS ARE NOT HIGHLIGHTING NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS WEEK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. HOWEVER THIS COULD
CHANGE IF THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OR THE RIDGE DAMPENS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAKING CONFIDENCE
LOW. THUNDERSTORMS AND AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY IMPACT KJMS,
KBIS, AND KDIK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH TEMPORARY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION AND LOWER CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY RETURN.
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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