783
FXUS63 KBIS 290833
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED
HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL AS LARGE AS HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH PERIODIC ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. OVERALL, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE, WHILE NO OBVIOUSLY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
IS PRESENT. THAT SAID, THE RAP DOES SHOW A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE
UP TO 2000 J/KG IN FAR WESTERN ND, ALONG WITH 35 TO 50 KTS OF 0
TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. IN ADDITION, DESPITE OVERALL WEAK FORCING,
THERE COULD BE A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS
LOW, IT IS STILL GREATER THAN ZERO WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
BEYOND TODAY, THE FORECAST DOESN'T VARY A LOT WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON ANY GIVEN
DAY IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A
FEW DAYS WHERE A LOW END RISK DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA.
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LOWLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE MAY APPROACH THE
STATE. IF SO, THIS COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE RIDING SEVERE WEATHER.
ALL IN ALL, FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH SOME LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN MOSTLY INTO THE 50S. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING POSSIBLE, HIGHS MAY
REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WITH LOWS INCREASING
TO THE LOW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHER THAN DURING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THAT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH A STRONG
ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME IS
KJMS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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