912
FXUS63 KBIS 300834
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
- PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A MESS OF WEATHER IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING. FIRST, THERE
IS A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH, AND RANGING FROM NORTHERN BILLINGS INTO
WESTERN OLIVER COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE LITTLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. ALL OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE ALONG A MOISTURE
GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
VERY SLOWLY CHURNS SOUTHEAST, AND A SUBTLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. SECOND, SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS BACKED
UP BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIRD,
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY UP THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS IS LIKELY
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG EMBEDDED IN THERE AS WELL, THOUGH IT'S DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS TRANSITION IS, AND WHERE BOTH CONDITIONS
MAY OVERLAP. ESPECIALLY WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS PRESENT. THAT SAID, SKY COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE
EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF ANY FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FOG SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING, WHILE NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL, WITH LIMITED SHEAR AND LOW
INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, AS MAPPED OUT ON ON SPC'S
DAY 1 OUTLOOK, THERE IS A GREATER THAN ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE VERY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF ND (MAINLY BOWMAN
COUNTY) WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT HIGHER, AND JUST ENOUGH
SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR A 60 MPH
WIND GUST.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON ANY GIVEN DAY LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
A CONDITIONAL LOW END THREAT DEVELOPING ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY,
ESPECIALLY AS WEAK RIDGING ENCROACHES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEK, IS GREATER THAN ZERO.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN THAT BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. A VERY SLIGHT WARM-UP IS
THEN FAVORED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ENCROACHING WEAK THERMAL RIDGE. EVEN THEN, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WHICH IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ARE PRESENT IN
NORTHERN ND, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMOT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS IS SOMEWHAT
LOW, SO USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR KDIK AND KBIS. PATCHY FOG HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, THOUGH THOSE REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY MORE FROM NEAR-
SURFACE SMOKE AT THIS TIME. STILL, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THERE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH PATCHY NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN
SOME LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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