823
FXUS63 KBIS 301059
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
559 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
- PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND. SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL ND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING, WHILE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES IN THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A MESS OF WEATHER IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING. FIRST, THERE
IS A LINE OF SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH, AND RANGING FROM NORTHERN BILLINGS INTO
WESTERN OLIVER COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE LITTLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. ALL OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE ALONG A MOISTURE
GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
VERY SLOWLY CHURNS SOUTHEAST, AND A SUBTLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. SECOND, SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS BACKED
UP BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIRD,
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY UP THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS IS LIKELY
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG EMBEDDED IN THERE AS WELL, THOUGH IT'S DIFFICULT TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS TRANSITION IS, AND WHERE BOTH CONDITIONS
MAY OVERLAP. ESPECIALLY WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS PRESENT. THAT SAID, SKY COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE
EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF ANY FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FOG SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING, WHILE NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL, WITH LIMITED SHEAR AND LOW
INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, AS MAPPED OUT ON ON SPC'S
DAY 1 OUTLOOK, THERE IS A GREATER THAN ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE VERY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF ND (MAINLY BOWMAN
COUNTY) WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT HIGHER, AND JUST ENOUGH
SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR A 60 MPH
WIND GUST.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ND. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON ANY GIVEN DAY LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
A CONDITIONAL LOW END THREAT DEVELOPING ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY,
ESPECIALLY AS WEAK RIDGING ENCROACHES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEK, IS GREATER THAN ZERO.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN THAT BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. A VERY SLIGHT WARM-UP IS
THEN FAVORED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ENCROACHING WEAK THERMAL RIDGE. EVEN THEN, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WHICH IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ND, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT KDIK FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO THIS MORNING. KBIS HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF SHOWERS FOR
A BIT NOW AND MAY OR MAY NOT SEE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SMOKE AND PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. DELINEATING EXACTLY WHERE SMOKE AND
FOG IS REMAINS DIFFICULT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
SMOKE IS MOST LIKELY PRESENT IN EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND,
WHILE FOG AND RAIN ARE THE MOST LIKELY THE CULPRITS FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WHILE SMOKE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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