148
FXUS63 KBIS 301946
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY AND IMPACT AIR QUALITY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
- PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
CURRENTLY, A DIRTY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEAST
ND/NORTHERN MN TODAY.
SUBSTANCE AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH HAVE
DIMINISHED THE PERSISTANT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS SOUTH, AND
WILL ACT TO LIMIT ANY OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
VERY EXCITED FOR THIS, WITH CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS FAIRLY DRY SO
WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
OUR GIFT FROM THE NORTH IN REGARDS TO SMOKE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, AND LIKELY SOME AREAS ON
THURSDAY. LIMITED VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED, AND WILL MAINTAIN
A MENTION OF THE SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW, WITH A LOW
CHANCE WEST, WHERE AGAIN, RETURN FLOW IS SITUATED.
FILTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES
MOVING THROUGH, EACH BRINGING DAILY AND/OR NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SEASONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SMOKE AND ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITY
REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AND WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 18-48 HOURS, WITH A
WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, PERHAPS KDIK THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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