018
FXUS63 KBIS 302331
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY AND IMPACT AIR QUALITY TONIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
- PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
NO MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THE TIME OF
THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO
HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH
THESE HAVE REMAINED SMALL AND VERY SHORT LIVED SO FAR. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SUCH SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE, NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, CAUSING
VISIBILITIES TO DROP AS LOW AS 5 TO 6 MILES AT TIMES. OVERALL
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
CURRENTLY, A DIRTY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEAST
ND/NORTHERN MN TODAY.
SUBSTANCE AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH HAVE
DIMINISHED THE PERSISTANT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS SOUTH, AND
WILL ACT TO LIMIT ANY OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
VERY EXCITED FOR THIS, WITH CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS FAIRLY DRY SO
WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
OUR GIFT FROM THE NORTH IN REGARDS TO SMOKE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, AND LIKELY SOME AREAS ON
THURSDAY. LIMITED VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED, AND WILL MAINTAIN
A MENTION OF THE SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW, WITH A LOW
CHANCE WEST, WHERE AGAIN, RETURN FLOW IS SITUATED.
FILTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES
MOVING THROUGH, EACH BRINGING DAILY AND/OR NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SEASONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE MAINLY ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS ANTICIPATED
TO OCCASIONALLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 6 SM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, BEFORE BRIEFLY IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 6 SM TOMORROW MORNING AS
ANOTHER PUSH OF SMOKE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR -SHRA AT
KDIK THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING AT KDIK WITH THIS UPDATE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME
STORMS WILL THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEYOND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL THEN BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ADAM
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