769
FXUS63 KBIS 310537
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY AND IMPACT AIR QUALITY TONIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
- PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE NIGHT UPDATE. THUS FAR,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST, SO
WE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SOME CAMS STILL SUGGEST SOME ACTIVITY HERE BEFORE THE
NIGHT IS OVER, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. OTHERWISE,
JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
CALM CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE TIME
OF THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOUND OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING A CLEAR RADAR ACROSS THE
BOARD. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH CAMS CONTINUING TO
CAPTURE MORE DEVELOPMENT EARLY TONIGHT AS A INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES IN ACROSS THE WEST. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONTINUES TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO AS
LOW AS 5 SM. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH NO
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
NO MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED AT THE TIME OF
THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO
HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH
THESE HAVE REMAINED SMALL AND VERY SHORT LIVED SO FAR. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SUCH SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE, NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, CAUSING
VISIBILITIES TO DROP AS LOW AS 5 TO 6 MILES AT TIMES. OVERALL
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
CURRENTLY, A DIRTY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEAST
ND/NORTHERN MN TODAY.
SUBSTANCE AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH HAVE
DIMINISHED THE PERSISTANT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS SOUTH, AND
WILL ACT TO LIMIT ANY OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
VERY EXCITED FOR THIS, WITH CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS FAIRLY DRY SO
WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
OUR GIFT FROM THE NORTH IN REGARDS TO SMOKE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, AND LIKELY SOME AREAS ON
THURSDAY. LIMITED VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED, AND WILL MAINTAIN
A MENTION OF THE SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW, WITH A LOW
CHANCE WEST, WHERE AGAIN, RETURN FLOW IS SITUATED.
FILTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES
MOVING THROUGH, EACH BRINGING DAILY AND/OR NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
SEASONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SMOKE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER SURFACE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. THUS FAR,
ONLY KDIK IS SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THIS SMOKE.
OTHERWISE, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO ADD
MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC SITE. THAT BEING SAID, IF A SITE IS TO
BE IMPACTED, IT WOULD LIKELY BE KDIK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ZH
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