719
FXUS63 KBIS 310820
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
POTENTIALLY LIMITING VISIBILITY AND IMPACTING AIR QUALITY AT
TIMES.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
- PERIODIC LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(20 TO 60 PERCENT) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY SITS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING LOCATED OVER
MONTANA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND COULD BRING SOME OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WHILE MOST OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A
GLANCING BLOW TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE SMOKE ALOFT AND SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM DISTANT
WILDFIRES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SMOKE TO CONTINUE
FILTERING DOWN INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR-SMOKE MODEL SUGGEST NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING,
BUT WILL HANG ON IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS,
DEVILS LAKE BASIN, AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODIC LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 50 PERCENT) WILL START TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (BEST CHANCES SOUTH) TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES CLOSER AND DEAMPLIFIES. MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT
WORKWEEK. AS OF NOW, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN BUT
CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER RETURNING TO OUR AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC AND BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WHEN WE COULD SEE
SOME MID 80S BACK IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SMOKE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER SURFACE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. THUS FAR,
ONLY KDIK IS SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THIS SMOKE.
OTHERWISE, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO ADD
MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC SITE. IF A SITE WERE TO BE IMPACTED, IT
WOULD LIKELY BE KDIK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ZH
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