619
FXUS63 KBIS 311806
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
POTENTIALLY LIMITING VISIBILITY AND IMPACTING AIR QUALITY AT
TIMES.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
- PERIODIC LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(20 TO 60 PERCENT) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
ANY RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS DROPPED OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH NO RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA AT THE MOMENT. STILL
SEEING MODERATELY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF 5 TO 6 MILES FROM
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
BLENDED IN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING THROUGH THE DUNN AND MERCER
COUNTY AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT AND SOMEWHAT TRAINING, A FEW
LOCALIZED AREA COULD BE GETTING DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL, WITH
THE NDAWN STATION NEAR EPPING REPORTING A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS THE AREA, WITH NEAR-
SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 4 TO 6 MILES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN NOTED THUS FAR, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES EVENTUALLY
WITH AROUND 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN PLACE PER SPC MESOANALYSIS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PRETTY ISOLATED.
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH VISIBILITIES
HAVING BEEN DOWN IN THE 3 TO 6 MILE RANGE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH.
FOR THIS UPDATE, JUST TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT
TERM TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, JUST BLENDED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY SITS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING LOCATED OVER
MONTANA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND COULD BRING SOME OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WHILE MOST OF THE
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A
GLANCING BLOW TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (~20 PERCENT) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE SMOKE ALOFT AND SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM DISTANT
WILDFIRES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SMOKE TO CONTINUE
FILTERING DOWN INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR-SMOKE MODEL SUGGEST NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING,
BUT WILL HANG ON IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS,
DEVILS LAKE BASIN, AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODIC LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 50 PERCENT) WILL START TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (BEST CHANCES SOUTH) TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES CLOSER AND DEAMPLIFIES. MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT
WORKWEEK. AS OF NOW, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN BUT
CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER RETURNING TO OUR AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC AND BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WHEN WE COULD SEE
SOME MID 80S BACK IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SOME LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TO START THE AFTERNOON. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BRING VISIBILITY DOWN, DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 4 TO 6 MILES. SMOKE
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOME THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF CONSISTENT IMPACTS AT KJMS. LOWER CEILINGS START
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...JONES
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