961
FXUS63 KBIS 151917
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, LIFTING
NORTH INTO CANADA THIS EVENING.
- ON AND OFF LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH THE
FIRST HALF BEING WARMER THAN THE SECOND HALF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL MOSTLY END LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAP MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE, WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT
ANTICIPATED, A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
WITH A GREATER THAN ZERO CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TUESDAY COULD BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER
WHICH, MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL
CHURN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
OTHER THAN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT. OVERALL, IT'S NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR FOG SINCE
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ALL THE RECENT
RAIN, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER, IT SHALLOW FIELD FOG IS FAVORED TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT
FORM.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. AFTER WHICH, A COOLING TREND IS ON TAP TO
FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREADS REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN ND. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AS WELL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT
IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIFT INTO CANADA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER, IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, WHILE PATCHY
FOG IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG MAY
REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. AT THIS TIME, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW FIELD FOG. THEREFORE, ONLY
ADDED VCFG TO KBIS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT RAINS, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FOG BECOMES
DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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