088
FXUS63 KBIS 160314
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT.
- ON AND OFF LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH THE
FIRST HALF BEING WARMER THAN THE SECOND HALF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
EARLIER WE HAD ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA, BUT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO STAY TAME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOWS OVER THE REGION, EXPECT THERE TO BE FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM TIME TO TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST, WEST
CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WRAPPING AROUND IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. EARLIER WE DID HAVE SOME FUNNEL
CLOUD REPORTS AROUND THE MINOT AREA. WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE THREAT FOR FUNNELS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
STORMS ARE NOW ENTERING THE STATE AFFILIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA/NORTHWEST WYOMING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN MEAGER,
BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER ONE OF THESE COULD
PULSE UP A LITTLE BIT EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL MOSTLY END LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAP MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE, WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT
ANTICIPATED, A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
WITH A GREATER THAN ZERO CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TUESDAY COULD BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER
WHICH, MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL
CHURN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
OTHER THAN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT. OVERALL, IT'S NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR FOG SINCE
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ALL THE RECENT
RAIN, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER, IT SHALLOW FIELD FOG IS FAVORED TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT
FORM.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. AFTER WHICH, A COOLING TREND IS ON TAP TO
FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREADS REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CEILINGS REMAINING VFR EXCEPT DURING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT MAY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-EVENING.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
NOT MENTIONED THIS IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAFS AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE EXPECTED PATCHY NATURE, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT ANY ONE POINT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
SOUTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...JJS
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