093
FXUS63 KBIS 160802
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40
TO 60 PERCENT) ARE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. CAMS GENERALLY SUGGEST THEY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS AND PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED, SO WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THEY DON'T MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
THAN CAMS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WITH A LOSS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
A DECREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ANY FURTHER STRONG STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY.
ONCE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE, A MOSTLY DRY DAY
IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS
UPPER LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN RETURN TO MOST OF SOUTHERN
ND TONIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS UPPER
LOW WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND THEN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WITH GENERALLY LOW INSTABILITY PROGGED,
NO PARTICULAR DAY STANDS OUT AS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS
TIME.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. A COOLING TREND IS THEN ON TRACK TO
FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN
FAVORED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENTERED SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND ARE
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT KBIS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE TO FEW HOURS BEFORE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
OF KDIK AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TUESDAY EVENING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. ONE OTHER
THING OF NOTE IS THAT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
FOG FORMATION SO CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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