398
FXUS63 KBIS 161354
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40
TO 60 PERCENT) ARE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER THIS EVENING NOW, BASED ON THE LATEST
CAMS. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE BLENDED IN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING RETURNS IN THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MAIN
DISCUSSION HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE, A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A VERY ISOLATED LINE OF SHOWERS, OR
MORE SO SPRINKLES FOR THE MOST PART, IN NORTHWESTERN ND. THESE
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE, CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. CAMS GENERALLY SUGGEST THEY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS AND PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED, SO WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THEY DON'T MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
THAN CAMS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WITH A LOSS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
A DECREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ANY FURTHER STRONG STORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY.
ONCE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE, A MOSTLY DRY DAY
IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS
UPPER LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN RETURN TO MOST OF SOUTHERN
ND TONIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS UPPER
LOW WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND THEN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WITH GENERALLY LOW INSTABILITY PROGGED,
NO PARTICULAR DAY STANDS OUT AS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS
TIME.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. A COOLING TREND IS THEN ON TRACK TO
FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN
FAVORED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, AND TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN ND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KDIK, SO USED
A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
ELSEWHERE TO INCLUDE IN ANY OTHER TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page