718
FXUS63 KBIS 170749
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WHERE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A 70 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TO
FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A FAIRLY WELL STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY CHURNING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AND LINGERING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, MOST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL DOWN IN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. HOWEVER, NORTHERN PERIPHERY SHOWERS OFF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE PRESENT IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WHILE THIS IS DELAYED FROM MODEL RUNS IN PRIOR DAYS,
THESE WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE STATE TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM, INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL, EXCEPT FOR IN THE AREAS ALONG,
SOUTH, AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN
THEN, LITTLE SHEAR IS IS PROGGED. SO WHILE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER, IS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WHERE
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LOWEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE WEST NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID,
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND OR MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE NBM
CURRENTLY KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE CWA, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR IN THE END. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS CERTAIN, THOUGH
AN INCOMING RIDGE SEEMS FAVORED DESPITE SOME MODELS MAINTAINING
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER, MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY, HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN FAVORED
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO
THE 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS SEASONABLE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A FINAL NOTE, A LITTLE PATCHY FOG HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, CEILING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ONE OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL ND. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW, SO LEFT
MENTIONS OUT OF ALL TAFS FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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