722
FXUS63 KBIS 171450
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE THROUGH THIS MORNING
SOUTH CENTRAL, THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TO
FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
MINOR UPDATES FOR AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
REMAIN. ALSO, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS WELL. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THE MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING IS THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. MOST
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO A LOW INSTABILITY
GRADIENT FROM APPROXIMATELY DICKINSON TO HAZEN TO WASHBURN. AS
FORECAST, FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ND, HOWEVER,
APPEARS TO REMAIN VERY PATCHY IN NATURE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A FAIRLY WELL STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY CHURNING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AND LINGERING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, MOST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL DOWN IN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. HOWEVER, NORTHERN PERIPHERY SHOWERS OFF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE PRESENT IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WHILE THIS IS DELAYED FROM MODEL RUNS IN PRIOR DAYS,
THESE WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE STATE TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM, INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL, EXCEPT FOR IN THE AREAS ALONG,
SOUTH, AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN
THEN, LITTLE SHEAR IS IS PROGGED. SO WHILE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER, IS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WHERE
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LOWEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE WEST NEAR THE ND/MT BORDER.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID,
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND OR MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE NBM
CURRENTLY KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT THE CWA, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR IN THE END. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS CERTAIN, THOUGH
AN INCOMING RIDGE SEEMS FAVORED DESPITE SOME MODELS MAINTAINING
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER, MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY, HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN FAVORED
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO
THE 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS SEASONABLE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A FINAL NOTE, A LITTLE PATCHY FOG HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. THIS INCLUDES LIGHTNING THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY
JUST NORTH OF KDIK, OR RATHER, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I94.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT KDIK AND KBIS AT TIMES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER
AT KXWA, KMOT, AND KJMS UNTIL TONIGHT. ALONG WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
OVER MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. ON A RELATED NOTE, PATCHY FOG
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING
THOUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OVERALL, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, THOUGH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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