364
FXUS63 KBIS 180827
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE TODAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY BRING SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AT TIMES.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY AND
FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S BY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY, AND WILL
REMAIN, CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY, BEFORE VERY SLOWLY
MEANDERING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SHOWERS WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY, THOUGH MAY LINGER IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ND INTO SATURDAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THOUGH A FEW RUMBLES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ND. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
THOUGH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN (THUNDERSTORMS) REMAINS OVER ONE PLACE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WHEN A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY, THE NBM HAS FINALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS
IDEA AND PUT MENTIONABLE POPS INTO THE FORECAST.
DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER, HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, AND MOSTLY IN THE 60S ON
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A
THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH, BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MONDAY FAVORS
COOLER HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. BEYOND MONDAY,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHETHER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL, OR IF FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL OR NORTHWESTERLY. THE NBM FAVORS A
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE OUTCOME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK ARE ALSO FAVORED TO
BE SEASONABLE TO SEASONABLY WARM AND IN THE 40S (SEASONABLE) TO
LOW 50S (SEASONABLY WARM).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS. AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF LIGHTNING AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY TIME IS VERY LOW.
OR IN OTHER WORDS, EVERY TERMINAL IS FAR LESS LIKELY THAN
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
NORTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER PROGRESSION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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