459
FXUS63 KBIS 231443
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
OF NORTH DAKOTA.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40 TO 60 PERCENT) ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER (CLOSER TO NORMAL) FOR
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
THE AREAS OF FOG ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SLOWLY WEST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
SFC RIDGE, IMPACTING MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
FOG/WEATHER GRIDS DEPICT THIS WELL, THUS NO CHANGES WITH THIS
QUICK UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
CURRENTLY, HIGH AMPLITUDE S/WV RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SFC WINDS
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTERN ND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. I DID SCALE
BACK ON FOG POTENTIAL ALONG TO WEST OF THE SFC RIDGE, WHICH
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH, KEEPING BEST FOG
POTENTIAL EAST.
ABOVE MENTIONED S/WV RIDGE IS UNDERCUT BY AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
LOW/CLOSED WAVE SCOOTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN
BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY RESULTING IN THE SFC RIDGE
PUSHING TO THE EAST RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING WARMER, WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DRY WEATHER. BROAD/DIRTY RIDGING IS DEPICTED INTO THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY, THEN RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BUILDS INLAND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRI NIGHT/SAT AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. THE INCREASED
RETURN FLOW/WAA WILL SEE THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THIS LATEST WARM
PERIOD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS (NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S).
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED
IMPULSE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NW IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SUN
NIGHT/MON, ALONG WITH ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS MON-TUE.
LEAD IMPULSES WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR AREA AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND AMOUNTS
ARRIVING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRAILING S/WV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LATER ON MONDAY. NBM CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS MON-TUE, WITH MINIMAL
MOISTURE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST OF THE SFC LOW TRACK.
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND MINIMAL PRECIP
CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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