318
FXUS63 KBIS 240304
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1004 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40 TO 60 PERCENT) ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER (CLOSER TO AVERAGE) FOR
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
WHAT LITTLE CLOUD COVER WAS PRESENT OVER THE AREA IS SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST, LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA IS SLOWLY EDGING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE, BUT A QUIET EVENING CONTINUES.
UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT BUT NO REAL CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
CURRENTLY A SMALL PROGRESSIVE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE.
ANOTHER QUICK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH MONTANA WITH A
SURFACE WARM FRONT UNDER IT. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEIGHTS
ARE FALLING AS A SLIGHT TROUGH MOVES IN. THERE ARE NO CLOUDS IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
SKIES. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH THE WARM FRONT
AND TROUGH. WITH THAT WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S WITH THE CLEAR SKIES.
FORECAST LOWS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CONTINUED WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
MAYBE EVEN THE 70S OUT WEST. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS
ANOTHER QUICK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL ALSO BE VERY BREEZY,
SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE WINDIER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR
35 MPH IN THOSE SAME LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CREATING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT OUT
THERE. SO FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL START TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT A ROCKIES LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
FORM AND MOVE INTO EITHER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR MIDWEST
REGIONS, BRINGING THAT OCEAN MOISTURE OVER HERE. FORECAST QPF
THROUGH TUESDAY HAS THE RAIN FROM HIGHWAY 85 EAST. WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS STARTING ON THE EAST END OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE ALL LESS THEN ONE
INCH. TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK WILL BE BACK TO AT OR
BELOW AVERAGE, SINCE WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE NINE TO ELEVEN DEGREES
AS THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ADDS
UP. AFTER TUESDAY A ZONAL PATTERN LOOKS TO SET IN, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
SHIFTING TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...JONES
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