745
FXUS63 KBIS 240910
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER (FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70, WITH NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 50S).
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40 TO 60 PERCENT) ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY CENTRAL
AND EAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER (CLOSER TO NORMAL) THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
CURRENTLY, BROAD/DIRTY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
LOW/CLOSED WAVE IS CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE, MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA, EVIDENT VIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SUBTLE CIRCULATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEPICTED. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES MILDER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
THANKS TO A STEADY MIXING WIND UP TO 10 MPH AT TIMES.
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTED IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 12-24
HOURS, WITH THIS PATTERN PERSISTING TODAY RESULTING IN A WEAKER
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES
NUDGING WARMER, ALONG WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND DRY WEATHER.
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND AMPLIFIES ON
SATURDAY, AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. GRADIENT FORCING INCREASES AS LEE SIDE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH'S EASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW AND POSITION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER WAA AND THE WARMEST
PERIOD OF THIS WARM SPELL ON SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
MID/UPPER 60S - LOWER 70S FORECAST FOR HIGHS (NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 50S).
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, WITH
A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK POKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INITIAL CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH, LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SUN
NIGHT/MON. WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF NORTH DAKOTA, EMBEDDED
IMPULSES IN STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A FEW INITIAL
LIGHT SHOWERS SUN AFT/EVE TO OUR AREA. ANOTHER STRONG EMBEDDED
IMPULSE DEVELOPS ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND WILL SWING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP CHANCES, THOUGH ENSEMBLES AND NBM ARE TRENDING A BIT MORE
EAST, FAVORING MAINLY THE EASTERN DAKOTAS FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH
MINIMAL IF ANY MOISTURE EXPECTED WEST.
AFTERWARDS, A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED AMONGST
ENSEMBLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGES MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED TO BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NBM SPREADS START TO INCREASE
AFTER TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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