650
FGUS73 KBIS 242035
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-069-075-079-101-250445-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
THIS FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN
OF NORTH DAKOTA, COVERING THE PERIOD OF 27 OCTOBER, 2025 THROUGH
25 JANUARY, 2026.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS OUTLOOK AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
RISKS OF FLOODING AS DETERMINED BY THE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECAST
MODEL OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE THIRD SECTION GIVES THE
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE AT THE LISTED
FORECAST LOCATIONS. AND FINALLY, THE FOURTH SECTION COVERS THE RISK
OF THE RIVER SITES FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGES.
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA ARE
AT NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
..SNOWPACK CONDITIONS
NO SNOW EXISTS IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA.
..CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ONLY THE VERY WESTERN EDGES OF DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES HAVE A
D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) DROUGHT DESIGNATION.
..RESERVOIRS AND NATURAL WETLANDS
RESERVOIRS AND NATURAL WETLANDS CONTINUE TO FARE REASONABLY WELL
DESPITE THE DROUGHT OF EARLIER IN THE YEAR.
..SOIL CONDITIONS
SOILS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH SOIL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE.
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
THE NEAR TERM 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOKS STRONGLY FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY FAVOR NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE FUTURE AND
THE WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH A SLIGHT FAVORING OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EVEN THOUGH THE
FULL MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR NOVEMBER REFLECT EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT UNSEASONABLE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL FADE THE FARTHER ONE GETS INTO NOVEMBER.
LOOKING EVEN LONGER TERM, THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOKS COVERING NOVEMBER,
DECEMBER, AND JANUARY HAVE THE REGION WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
FAVORING FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DES LACS
FOXHOLM 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS
SHERWOOD 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FOXHOLM 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINOT 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINOT 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LOGAN 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SAWYER 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VELVA 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WINTERING
KARLSRUHE 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS
TOWNER 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BANTRY 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS
WESTHOPE 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DES LACS
FOXHOLM 1639.4 1639.4 1639.4 1639.4 1639.5 1640.5 1641.2
:SOURIS
SHERWOOD 1610.0 1610.0 1610.0 1610.0 1610.0 1610.0 1610.1
FOXHOLM 1569.9 1569.9 1569.9 1570.0 1570.2 1570.4 1570.6
MINOT 1552.8 1552.8 1552.9 1552.9 1553.1 1553.3 1553.4
MINOT 1542.0 1542.0 1542.0 1542.1 1542.2 1542.3 1542.4
LOGAN 1524.4 1524.4 1524.5 1524.6 1524.8 1525.2 1525.5
SAWYER 1510.3 1510.3 1510.3 1510.4 1510.5 1510.8 1511.0
VELVA 1493.2 1493.2 1493.2 1493.2 1493.5 1494.3 1494.9
:WINTERING
KARLSRUHE 1504.3 1504.3 1504.3 1504.3 1504.3 1504.4 1505.8
:SOURIS
TOWNER 1449.4 1449.4 1449.4 1449.5 1449.7 1450.0 1450.2
BANTRY 1434.9 1435.0 1435.0 1435.1 1435.3 1435.8 1436.0
:WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 1437.1 1437.1 1437.1 1437.1 1437.1 1437.2 1437.3
:SOURIS
WESTHOPE 1411.2 1411.2 1411.2 1411.2 1411.3 1411.5 1411.9
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DES LACS
FOXHOLM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SOURIS
SHERWOOD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FOXHOLM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MINOT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MINOT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
LOGAN 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SAWYER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VELVA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:WINTERING
KARLSRUHE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SOURIS
TOWNER 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BANTRY 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SOURIS
WESTHOPE 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF NOVEMBER.
SCHLAG
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