445
FXUS63 KBIS 250619
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
119 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND (NORMAL
AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES).
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCES CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY (~40-60 PERCENT).
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, OTHERWISE A QUIET
NIGHT WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL ON
TRACK FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SCALED BACK A FEW HOURS ON THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG A FEW HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, HOWEVER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THUS MAINTAINED FOG MENTION. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS. HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
HAVE INCREASED FOG MENTION TO AREAS IN THESE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
REGIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO, WITH MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO
BORDER AND MODEST RIDGE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. COMPACT
LOW SLIDES DOWN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY, BUT ITS IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS QUITE LIMITED, ONLY
PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT, UPPER LOW SCAMPERS ALONG ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TRACKING EAST OVER OUR AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA. ONLY CONCERN AT
THIS POINT IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
ADVERTISING ITS POTENTIAL SO WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR
PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S (POSSIBLY A FEW 70S WEST), WHICH IS
ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONLY PESKY PART WITH
THE DAY MAY BE THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
CHANGES COME SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND VERY BROAD
TROUGH TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST, WHICH THEN STARTS TO CLOSE OFF
OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD FOR ONE MORE DAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE (ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NODAK/JAMES RIVER VALLEY)
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR WORKS IN. LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40
PERCENT) RAIN SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LOW RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WEST (~20 TO 30 PERCENT), GREATER CHANCES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY (~40 TO 60
PERCENT) AS A VARIETY OF WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE GRADUALLY
EASTWARD TRACKING AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
GRADUALLY TAPER OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WITH CHANCES
GRADUALLY TAPERING ELSEWHERE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY.
A MOMENTARY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO TO LINGER NEAR NORMAL, THOUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK NBM PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE OF A
SPREAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE 06 TAF PERIOD. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST LATER
THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IMPACTING
KJMS (IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE). BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...NH
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