085
FXUS63 KBIS 260320
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1020 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TONIGHT WEST AND CENTRAL. WINDY SUNDAY SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING WEST AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL.
- THE PROBABILITY OF A HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IS HIGHEST (50
TO 60 PERCENT) SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARVEY TO
BISMARCK TO SELFRIDGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
LIMITED UPDATES AGAIN NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL. THE
LACK OF MIXING SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT, THUS KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS. WEAK RADAR RETURNS
IN MONTANA ARE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. MOST HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS THESE RETURNS EITHER DIMINISHING OR MOVING THROUGH
ND IN AN ISOLATED MANNER. GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH HAVE ADDED 10 PERCENT
CHANCES TO SOME AREAS. OVERALL JUST MINOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS
EVENING AS THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE WEST, WHILE LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST. THESES LOWER CLOUDS MAY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WEST, BUT
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT, A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST AND LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN ND
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WEST INTO CENTRAL ND. BY SUNDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH CLOUDY STATEWIDE, WITH LOW STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS YOU MIGHT EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF FOG, AND ALTHOUGH IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT THAT LOW VISIBILITIES ARE NOT FORECAST.
HRRR/RAP AND GFSLAMP ARE ALL INDICATING LOW STRATUS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AND NONE ARE
FORECASTING FOG. TYPICALLY ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES WE CAN SEE
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH OF A
SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO LIFT ON SUNDAY WE SEE THE STRONG
WINDS ALREADY ALOFT, BEGIN TO WORK DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ND EARLY IN THE MORNING, AND WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT YOUR TYPICAL SETUP FOR STRONG WINDS WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS, UP TO AROUND 50 KNOTS
AT 85H THAT PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES (BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES) ARE STRONGEST
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES AND DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 45
MPH OVER THE ADVISORY AREA, FOR ENOUGH TIME TO JUSTIFY AN
ADVISORY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF AND ABR, HAVE ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM SUNDAY IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
WHETHER IT'S INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST, OR
LOW STRATUS CENTRAL, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE NBM IS
FINALLY DEPICTING SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WEST
ON SUNDAY. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CHANCES GO UP A
BIT WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND A DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND, AND IMPINGING UPON STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND A
THETA-E RIDGE. AN AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER INTO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LOW, LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE LATEST NBM
SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARVEY TO BISMARCK TO SELFRIDGE.
THIS IS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FAR NORTHWEST WILL SEE THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS, IF THEY SEE
ANYTHING AT ALL AFTER THE SMALL CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS ON MONDAY NIGHT, OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WE SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY THAT
BRINGS LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT). IT WILL BE
QUITE A BIT COOLER FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS A LOT CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE EAST
MOVE WESTWARD TO CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. SITES IN THE WEST SHOULD SEE
CEILINGS REMAIN AT VFR HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS
COULD ALSO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SITES AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS. CLOUD CEILINGS COULD REMAIN AT MVFR
HEIGHTS FOR SOME CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE WEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
035>037-046>048-050-051.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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