480
FXUS63 KBIS 260832
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
BREEZY ELSEWHERE.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50 TO 90 PERCENT) DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HALF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CURRENTLY, HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO, WITH A POTENT LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOW STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AS WELL, AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TILL MID TO LATE
MORNING, THEN ERODE WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY TODAY AND TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BY TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW
AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, AND WILL LEAVE
THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. IN THE
MEANTIME, A STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 150KT UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, TRIGGERING ANOTHER AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING LATER TODAY. THE STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV SWINGS
EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT, THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AFOREMENTIONED ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM ACROSS WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL ND,
THEN WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST MON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, AS MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED WAVES LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE
S/WV TROUGH INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DECENT DIV Q FORCING COUPLED WITH LEVEL
FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND, IN COMBINATION OF ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. THUS, THERE IS A LARGE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL ND
AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE AT AROUND 60 PERCENT. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY TAPER OVER THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES
GRADUALLY TAPERING ELSEWHERE FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING/AFT. ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AS WELL
WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED AMONGST
ENSEMBLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL
PASSAGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS
FEATURE LOOK MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY REBOUNDING
TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER EAST
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING, WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK. LOW STRATUS IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BACK EAST SUN MORNING-AFT, WITH MAINLY UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER SUN AFT INTO SUN NIGHT, ALONG WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY,
SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WEST IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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