366
FXUS63 KBIS 271738
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL TODAY FOR ALL BUT WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CHANCES FOR RAIN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
(THERE IS A 60 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FOR
THIS SAME AREA AND TIME PERIOD).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE PRIMARY BAND OF RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM
GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
PIERCE/BENSON/TOWNER COUNTIES AREA. PER NDAWN OBSERVATIONS,
THERE IS A MODEST SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS OF AT LEAST
ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
EVENT, WITH THE KBIS ASOS JUST SHY OF AN INCH FOR THE DAY'S
TOTAL SO FAR. RAIN IS PROGRESSING ABOUT AS EXPECTED, AND WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. DID SEE ONE PULSE OF
LIGHTNING IN NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SO FAR, A BROAD QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH PARTS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE GRANT AND MORTON COUNTIES AREA. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FURTHER UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOADED IN NEW BLENDED POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WHICH DID SPEED
UP TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE
AND AVIATION UPDATE. SEE BLOW FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CURRENTLY, LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING S/WV OVER WYOMING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WAVE HAS
TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING EARLIER, AND WHICH HAS/WILL BECOME ORIENTATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SD NORTH-
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS LEAD EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THROUGH 18Z, STRONG DIV Q
FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, WITH ENHANCED AMOUNTS FOCUSED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (PLACEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE) WHERE
NBM SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF
RAIN, AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL
RATHER QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
FORCING PUSHES FARTHER EAST. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF ND THIS AFTERNOON WHEN DECENT LIFT AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
AFTERWARDS, S/WV RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MID
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL CLIPPER/SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE
LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, WITH THE MAIN WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN BRIEFLY COOL OFF WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND ANY
PRECIPITATION. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KJMS. RAIN WILL END AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...ADAM/NH
AVIATION...JONES
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