768
FXUS63 KBIS 272018
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH BASE CROSSING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES, AN UPPER JET STREAK, AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION,
WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAS BEEN JUST
WEST OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT, WITH A
BROAD 0.75" TO 1.25" EXTENDING FROM THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. A FEW LIGHTNING PULSES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SO WE ARE
CARRYING A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANYTHING BEYOND AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO IS LOW.
AS THE TROUGH BASE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, ENDING
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE SET ON A CLIPPER COMING THROUGH
TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND
STRENGTH. NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW, UNDER 20 PERCENT, WITH
CHANCES FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO BRING
AT LEAST MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT MENTIONED FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA JUST YET.
WITH THIS CLIPPER PASSAGE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON
THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER, HALLOWEEN HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY, AND WHAT LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER
ON FRIDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST DIMINISH FURTHER FOR THE EVENING
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH BLENDED
POPS START TO INCREASE MORE NOTABLY ON SATURDAY. THE GENERAL
SCENARIO BEING ADVERTISED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW
TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY, WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SMALL
MINORITY OF MEMBERS KEEPS A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND ANY
PRECIPITATION. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KJMS. RAIN WILL END AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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