356
FXUS63 KBIS 280254
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
MAIN PUSH OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST LATE THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY LINE OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOME
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. OVERALL THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG, YET PERHAPS MIST AND PATCHY FOG
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SOME
INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS ARE FOUND. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH THE RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS. MADE SOME MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE LINGERING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH BASE CROSSING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES, AN UPPER JET STREAK, AND MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION,
WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAS BEEN JUST
WEST OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT, WITH A
BROAD 0.75" TO 1.25" EXTENDING FROM THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. A FEW LIGHTNING PULSES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SO WE ARE
CARRYING A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANYTHING BEYOND AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO IS LOW.
AS THE TROUGH BASE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, ENDING
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE SET ON A CLIPPER COMING THROUGH
TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND
STRENGTH. NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY VERY LOW, UNDER 20 PERCENT, WITH
CHANCES FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO BRING
AT LEAST MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT MENTIONED FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA JUST YET.
WITH THIS CLIPPER PASSAGE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON
THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER, HALLOWEEN HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY, AND WHAT LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER
ON FRIDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST DIMINISH FURTHER FOR THE EVENING
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH BLENDED
POPS START TO INCREASE MORE NOTABLY ON SATURDAY. THE GENERAL
SCENARIO BEING ADVERTISED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW
TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY, WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SMALL
MINORITY OF MEMBERS KEEPS A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
ABUNDANT CLOUDS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS THIS EVENING, WITH SOME VFR
CLOUDS IN THE WEST. AREAS WITH SHOWERS COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS THEN PUSH EAST
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH THESE CLOUDS TO PERHAPS SOME
MVFR HEIGHTS AT TIMES. TUESDAY, CLOUDS WILL LIFT FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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