736
FXUS63 KBIS 281934
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
234 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS RIDGING BUILDS OUT OVER WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
OUT WEST. SURFACE PRESSURE HEIGHT INCREASES HAS LEAD TO BREEZY
POST FRONTAL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 29 PERCENT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO A LIMITED AREA OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THIS EVENING LIMITING ANY LONG TERM NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S MAYBE EVEN DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW LEADING TO A
VERY SUBTLE WARM UP OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO SIT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD
PROMOTE INITIAL ATTACK FIRES, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIE
DOWN BEFORE SUNSET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND
25 PERCENT WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY PASS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS UPPER LOW COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
INCLUDING A RAIN SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW FRIDAY BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS. THE RIDGE
COULD QUICKLY WASHES OUT FROM ZONAL FLOW RETURNING SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WITH JET STREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA COULD MIX STRONGER
WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. THE NBM
HAS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR
WINDS AS THERE IS NO CLEAR SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS DROPPING OFF AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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