001
FXUS63 KBIS 290536
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS SKIRTING THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS, WE WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW SKY COVER IN
THE JRV. NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
IT SHOULD BE PRETTY COLD OVERNIGHT. MIXED IN SOME NBM25TH
PERCENTILE MINT GRIDS TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY
COLD SPOTS WEST OF THE RIVER. CURRENT DEWPOINT ARE ALREADY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN ND, INCLUDING KJMS
THIS EVENING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS RIDGING BUILDS OUT OVER WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
OUT WEST. SURFACE PRESSURE HEIGHT INCREASES HAS LEAD TO BREEZY
POST FRONTAL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 29 PERCENT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO A LIMITED AREA OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST TO QUICKLY
INCREASE THIS EVENING LIMITING ANY LONG TERM NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S MAYBE EVEN DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW LEADING TO A
VERY SUBTLE WARM UP OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO SIT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD
PROMOTE INITIAL ATTACK FIRES, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIE
DOWN BEFORE SUNSET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND
25 PERCENT WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY PASS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS UPPER LOW COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
INCLUDING A RAIN SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW FRIDAY BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS. THE RIDGE
COULD QUICKLY WASHES OUT FROM ZONAL FLOW RETURNING SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WITH JET STREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA COULD MIX STRONGER
WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. THE NBM
HAS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR
WINDS AS THERE IS NO CLEAR SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY WITH A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN, COULD CROSS PARTS OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TELKEN
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