854
FXUS63 KBIS 300247
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HALLOWEEN.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
LATEST SURFACE OBS AND WEBCAMS INDICATE RAIN FALLING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ND. NDAWN PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO SO FAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP BUT BLENDED THAT WITH SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS TO
PRODUCE POPS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY WARM ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR, BUT AS PRECIP MOVES INTO COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAME RIVER VALLEY,
THERE'S A LITTLE BETTER PROBABILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED THOUGH. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN ND. FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. PERHAPS A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST IN THE LOWER 50S WHILE THE EAST WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
OUT WEST WHICH COULD PROMOTE INITIAL ATTACK FIRES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 30
PERCENT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE CAMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS WITH AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE HEIGHTS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION INCLUDING A RAIN SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW FRIDAY
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY COULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THE RIDGE
COULD QUICKLY WASH OUT FROM QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO RETURN
SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH JET STREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA COULD MIX
STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY
DAY. THE NBM HAS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX FOR WINDS AS THERE IS NO CLEAR SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
ADDED A VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AT KXWA AND KMOT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT SO ADDED A MENTION OF LLWS AT
KMOT AND KBIS. LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH
BRINGING LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS INTO NORTHERN ND. CURRENTLY
KEPT MVFR CEILING OUT OF KXWA AND KMOT, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THESE TAF SITES AND FARTHER NORTH TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...TWH
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