605
FXUS63 KBIS 300554
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HALLOWEEN.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH A LITTLE SNOW
MIXED IN HERE AND THERE, CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
LATEST SURFACE OBS AND WEBCAMS INDICATE RAIN FALLING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ND. NDAWN PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO SO FAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP BUT BLENDED THAT WITH SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS TO
PRODUCE POPS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY WARM ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR, BUT AS PRECIP MOVES INTO COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAME RIVER VALLEY,
THERE'S A LITTLE BETTER PROBABILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED THOUGH. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN ND. FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. PERHAPS A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT HAS BROUGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST IN THE LOWER 50S WHILE THE EAST WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
OUT WEST WHICH COULD PROMOTE INITIAL ATTACK FIRES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 30
PERCENT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE CAMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS WITH AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE HEIGHTS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION INCLUDING A RAIN SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW FRIDAY
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY COULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THE RIDGE
COULD QUICKLY WASH OUT FROM QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO RETURN
SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH JET STREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA COULD MIX
STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY
DAY. THE NBM HAS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX FOR WINDS AS THERE IS NO CLEAR SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
IMPACT THE KJMS TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, BUT THE IMPACT TO
VISIBILITY IS MINIMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL DROP INTO
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING MVFR
CEILINGS TO KMOT. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT LOW END
VFR LEVELS FOR KXWA AS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS IS NOT
AS HIGH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JJS
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