710
FXUS63 KBIS 301146
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES (~20-30 PERCENT) FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN FRIDAY MAINLY
IN THE 30S WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES, ARE NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A WEAK WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTH. LITTLE IS COMING OUT OF THIS, BUT WILL STILL
ADDRESS IT WITH SOME LOW CHANCES (20%) IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. FURTHER WEST, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH
WITH INCREASING WINDS IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN, WITH TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TODAY, COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. FOR NOW HAVE HELD BACK FROM ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AROUND 30-35KT WINDS
MIXING DOWN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT WITH THAT SAID IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE A WINDY DAY OVER THE AREA. AS THE DAY GOES
ON, COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTERLY, PUSHING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH LOW (~20-30 PERCENT) RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES SPREADING THROUGH NORTHWEST/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TO START THE MORNING, SLIDING TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY. LOW RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WITH CHANCES ENDING FOR THE EVENING IN
TIME FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY OUT AND ABOUT.
WITH THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN,
WITH HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
OVER MOST LOCATIONS, MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR WEST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A BROAD WEAK WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH TO START THE WORK WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DIP A
BIT. RIDGING PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW,
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS
OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY IMPACT THE KJMS
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z, BUT THE IMPACT TO VISIBILITY IS
MINIMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LOWER CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, AND CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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