916
FXUS63 KBIS 301740
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES (~20-30 PERCENT) FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME TEMPERATURES ON HALLOWEEN FRIDAY MAINLY
IN THE 30S WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH FROM
THE UPPER LOW ANALYZED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WE DID BLEND IN
SOME HIGHER-RES SKY COVER WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH SPED UP TIMING
OF OVERCAST SKIES, BETTER IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS, WE CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH, WHICH IS ADVISORY THRESHOLD, BUT THINKING THEY WILL BE
SPORADIC AND A SHORT ENOUGH DURATION TO NOT WARRANT ANY
HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPANSE OF LOW STRATUS JUST ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE WITH THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW STRONG THESE GET IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. BLENDED IN LATEST GUIDANCE,
MAINLY FOR POPS, BUT NO BIG CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES, ARE NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A WEAK WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTH. LITTLE IS COMING OUT OF THIS, BUT WILL STILL
ADDRESS IT WITH SOME LOW CHANCES (20%) IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. FURTHER WEST, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH
WITH INCREASING WINDS IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN, WITH TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TODAY, COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. FOR NOW HAVE HELD BACK FROM ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AROUND 30-35KT WINDS
MIXING DOWN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT WITH THAT SAID IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE A WINDY DAY OVER THE AREA. AS THE DAY GOES
ON, COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTERLY, PUSHING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH LOW (~20-30 PERCENT) RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES SPREADING THROUGH NORTHWEST/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TO START THE MORNING, SLIDING TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY. LOW RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WITH CHANCES ENDING FOR THE EVENING IN
TIME FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY OUT AND ABOUT.
WITH THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN,
WITH HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
OVER MOST LOCATIONS, MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR WEST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A BROAD WEAK WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH TO START THE WORK WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DIP A
BIT. RIDGING PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE, WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX CURRENT IN THE
TAF FOR THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JONES
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