509
FXUS63 KBIS 311148
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
- TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 30S, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA & JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
THOUGH CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOW (~20%).
- WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN NOTED GIVEN THE LIGHT RATE OF SNOW AND THE WARM GROUND.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT OVER THAT AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE HIGH SETTLES
THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
BORDER WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER OUR AREA,
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH
THAT SAID, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM ANY
SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN OCCURRING.
FOR TODAY, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, AS UPPER LOW SETTLES TOWARDS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS SETTLED IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, COOLEST IN THE WEST.
FOR THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER, BEING NOTABLY
LIGHTER FOR TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(~20%) FOR A VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER TO PASS BY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW DROPS OR FLAKES AT BEST. TRICK-OR-TREAT
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY, MAINLY IN THE 30S
OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A NOTABLE UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WHICH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. STRONGER
WINDS ARE NOTED ALOFT WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN, SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
FOR THE WORK WEEK, A BROAD RIDGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT
UNSETTLED BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST WHERE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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